All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know for Game 7
Home Sweet Miami: There have been 145 Game 7s in the NBA playoffs, and home teams have won 76.5% of them. The Heat are 7-2 at home in the postseason, losing Games 2 and 5 after starting the postseason 7-0 at home. Miami is 6-4 all-time in Game 7s. Under Spoelstra, they’re 4-2, including a perfect 4-0 at home. Across the previous six Game 7s Spoelstra has coached, the Heat have a +6.0 point per game differential.
Jimmy Buckets: Jimmy Butler led the offensive attack for Miami in a resurgent performance that saw him score more points in Game 6 alone than in Games 3, 4, and 5 combined (47 vs 27). Butler finished with 47 Pts, 9 Reb, 8 Ast and 4 Steals, one of the finer efforts while facing elimination in Heat and NBA history. Butler’s 47 points are the most by a Heat player when facing elimination, and coincidentally, the top three performances in Heat history have now all come against the Celtics.
Been there, done that: When it comes to Game 7s, the Celtics are experienced. They’ve played, and won, more Game 7s than any other franchise. The Celtics are 25-9 all-time in Game 7s, and their .735 win pct in Game 7s is best among franchises with at least 2 games played. They’re 4-4 in Game 7s played on the road.
— ESPN Stats & Information
Breaking down Game 7
Line: Celtics (-2.5)
Money line: Celtics (-140), Heat (+120)
Total: 195.5 points
BPI Win%: Heat (51.3%)
Ruled Out: None
Note: BPI numbers factor in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play.
Notable: The total of 195,5 is the lowest in any game this season (first game below 200) and the lowest in any playoff game since 2018.
Notable: The Heat are just the 3rd team to be a home underdog in a Game 7 in the last 30 seasons (excluding the 2020 bubble). The previous two went 1-1 outright and ATS. – ESPN Stats & Information
Best bet: Celtics -2.5, Over 195.5. The Heat surprised the world with an unbelievable performance in Game 6 – to win back home court and momentum heading into Game 7 on Sunday night. I don’t expect Jimmy Butler to have another 47 points performance, which was needed for the Heat to win by 8 points. Let’s marinate in that for a minute. I believe the Celtics underestimated an injury riddled Heat team that was on the road. Game 6 was a wakeup call and Boston typically follows a loss with a win. Al Horford had an off night, going 1 for 6 from deep, Smart 1 for 9 from deep, Tatum had 7 turnovers, Brown had 4 turnovers and I don’t expect to see that again. I am also playing the over here, where this total is WAY too low, considering the over has hit 4 of the 6 games. I respect the defense, but there is way too much firepower on this court. – Anita Marks
Best bet: Jaylen Brown over 24.5 points. The Celtics are going to need Brown to step up. In Game 6, he scored 20 points, but two came in the second half. I don’t expect that to be the case tonight. Brown insisted after Game 6 that the Celtics would get their act together in Game 7. He’s averaged 23 PPG in the 2022 playoffs. In Game 7, Brown has a legitimate chance to lead the Celtics in scoring. – Eric Moody
Best bet: Over 195.5. I was hammering the over to start the series, because, despite how excellent both defenses are, these two teams can typically score well on one another. Going into Game 4, these two teams had scored at least 204 combined points in five straight games (going back to the regular season), with an average score of 216.8 PPG. Then, in Games 4 and 5, the Heat were incredibly injured as a team, which led to them producing two historically inept scoring games and therefore two unders. But with the Heat looking healthy in Game 6, the score came back to normal, and they combined for a more typical 214 points. While Game 7s are often defensive affairs, if the teams are healthy they should go over 195.5. –– Andre Snellings
Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 41.5 total points + assists + rebounds. This game is late in the series, which typically means that Tatum is about to put a big number on the board. In the last four games of the Bucks/Celtics series, Tatum averaged 33.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 5.3 APG, going over 41.5 PAR three times. In the last three games of this series, Tatum has averaged 27.7 PPG, 9.7 RPG and 6.0 APG, and gone over 41.5 PAR all three times. If he’s healthy, I look for Tatum to go big in Game 7. — Andre Snellings
Best bet: Jimmy Butler over 40.5 total points + assists + rebounds. Butler ‘overs’ have been some of the best bets in the playoffs so far. The only exception was when his knee was getting the better of him from Games 3-5. But, he bounced back in a big way in Game 6, and I can’t imagine we’ll see anything less than super-Butler in this crucial Game 7 as he tries to will the Heat back to the Finals. — Andre Snellings